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Issue 78
March/April 2008
Infinite Energy Magazine
The Seventh Wave and Beyond:
A World Revolution Driven by Knowledge
Bill Zebuhr
It is easy these days to get a bit depressed about the state
of the world and the prospects for the future. World pollution, religious wars,
deforestation, decimation of wildlife, over-use of resources, poverty, disease,
and other ills all result in a world lifestyle that is highly unsustainable.
Things seem bad and bound to get worse while governments around the
world—overseen by so-called leaders that are often pathetic—fiddle with weak
ideas that have been tried and proven wrong by history and common sense. Yet
there is hope. It does not come from politics or religion, but from knowledge
mostly gained by science and technology and led mostly by private business.
The last 250 years or so can be divided into six waves of
innovation that have resulted in the state of technology that we have today.
The first wave started in the mid-1700s and lasted for about 100 years. Use of
iron became widespread and enabled mechanization of water power and textile
machinery. Commerce expanded greatly as newly manufactured goods were traded
around the world. The second wave lasted until the early 1900s and was
characterized by steam power, railroads, steel production, and cotton growing
and processing. The third wave dominated until the mid-1900s and was driven by
the internal combustion engine (with all that it enabled) and a greatly
expanded chemical industry. Petrochemicals, aviation, electronics, and space
technology led the fourth wave that lasted until it was taken over by the fifth
wave around 1990. The fifth wave is where we are now and is driven by the
internet, biotechnology, software, and information technology. The sixth wave
has started but is not yet dominant and will focus on correcting many of the
sins of the previous waves to attempt to make the world economy sustainable.
Technology will be developed that will enable much more efficient use of
resources and a great reduction in environmental damage. This includes
renewable energy, waste disposal, water treatment, better materials, whole
system design that increases efficiency, green chemistry, nanotechnology,
and bioengineering.
Each wave is characterized by a greater level of innovation
than the previous one because it can make use of greater knowledge and better
tools. A water turbine of today bears little resemblance to a water wheel of
the 1700s even though they both are designed to extract power from flowing
water using the same science. The difference is that the science has benefited
from thousands of man years of refinement and likewise the tools used to refine
the design make use of all the technology developed in the intervening years.
The internal combustion engine of today is an incredibly refined machine even
though it is based on the same principles as the homemade engines built by
Henry Ford and the Wright brothers. It has been predicted for decades that it
would be superseded by other technology such as fuel cells, but continuous
refinement has kept it very competitive. It makes use of all the world’s
collective technical knowledge to remain so. This is an immense amount of
knowledge that would have been completely incomprehensible to the early engine
builders, but the same basic science was being followed.
While governments have fumbled, science and technology have
charged ahead and created the world we have today, for better or worse. The
sixth wave may or may not make the world’s economy sustainable. I think it will
go part way, but changes in people’s lifestyle will be necessary as well. These
changes can be encouraged by economics, such as fuel consumption decreasing
with increased price. This would happen smoothly except for the interference by
governments in the market. Governments are generally part of the problem, not
the solution, so they have to be worked around. As technology progresses, more
power is available to individuals so that they can either ignore the government
or be more alert to government action to take preemptive action. Using
technology to live off the grid, for example, avoids services that might be
supplied by the government and the internet can inform and empower people as to
pending government action. Some power and water purification technologies
developed during the sixth wave will definitely reduce the power that
governments have over individuals. The net result of the sixth wave will at
least be a world that will hang together long enough to get to the seventh
wave. The seventh wave will change things a lot.
The six waves are all based on the same science, mostly
Newtonian with some quantum mechanics and relativistic effects included.
Rockets still work on the same principle as ancient Chinese rockets, engines
are still limited by the second law of thermodynamics, we still don’t know what
gravity is or the structure of an atom or whether relativity is close to being
correct, and we certainly don’t understand the strange effects predicted and
demonstrated by quantum mechanics. Healthy people still live about as long as
they have for about a hundred years, so we have a long way to go in
understanding life. There are numerous unexplained events in the world that
science ignores or makes fun of but is clueless as to how to solve or
understand them. When these things are fully acknowledged and better understood
it will begin the seventh wave. I am proposing that the seventh wave is the
wave of innovation and development that will make use of new science and the
technology resulting from it. I am also proposing that the six waves are
components of a super wave and that the seventh will be the first of a series
of waves all based on the new science but with different technologies
dominating as the science is better understood and utilized.
The role that government played in the start of the six waves
of innovation was to be less oppressive and provide a legal structure where
property rights were recognized and enforced. The six waves started soon after
the American Revolution, which led the more developed world toward better
government. Today government is like mainstream science in that there are a lot
of problems but it does not know what to do next. In this case government is
going to be guided and forced by technology to change. Religion is another part
of the human condition that has historically been repressive and severely
slowed the understanding of the universe. Separation of church and state and
other freedoms from oppression released a torrent of innovation that started
the first wave. During the next super wave, science and technology will
drastically change religion. True knowledge will gain the upper hand and it
will rule. The rule will be far more benign than government or religion has
been.
The sixth wave that is already underway could last a long
time and even be considered the “last” wave if: 1) the population stabilizes or
decreases, 2) the earth cooperates by not changing too drastically, 3)
individuals cooperate in reducing consumption or they are forced to do so, 4)
no extraterrestrial force or event intervenes, or 5) mankind loses its appetite
for innovation. Of these scenarios, the least likely to happen is the last. If
mankind does not innovate it dies, it will no longer be a race of men and women
but something less. Given innovation, no matter how sustaining the world is or how
comfortable, someone will upset the apple cart with new ideas that will be
pursued no matter what.
Comfort is a two-edged sword. It can be pleasant and even
totally satisfying for some, but it does not provide an automatic driving force
for growth. The mind needs growth or decay sets in. An active, healthy mind may
be comfortable and even joyful but never satisfied. The only way to suppress
growth in a healthy mind is to subjugate it to relatively mindless tasks that
keep it occupied enough to prevent real thinking. That was the human condition
for many centuries until man had a little time left after just surviving.
Innovation can be overtly dangerous (weapons) or subtlety dangerous like the
car which can not only kill but uses so many resources that the whole planet is
endangered. The innovation that will occur in the seventh wave may totally
destroy sustainability—at least for a while—but it will occur anyway and the
problems will be dealt with later. The search will go on to discover the true
nature of the universe and that will lead to some upsetting technology and some
ideas that are very upsetting to the social status quo. This has gone on for a
long time but knowledge is increasing so much and communication is improving so
much that the myth keepers and mis-information
purveyors will have no place to hide.
Discoveries made during the seventh wave will not only
enable great new technologies but will reveal truths that have been kept under
cover by science, religion, and government. Myths about the Big Bang, dark
matter, aspects of relativity, and the reality behind quantum mechanics will
fall along with the myths associated with the hundreds of religions that
somehow survive today. The myth that government is “here to help you” will be
harder to overcome because the issues are less clear cut and politicians will
be in a fight for their lives.
One of the most anticipated and important of the new
technologies will be the production of abundant clean energy. The energy will
most likely be produced in a distributed fashion and used near where it is
produced. The energy will enable the local treatment of water and sewage. In
fact, it will allow the recycling of water to the extent that a central water
utility may not be needed. Thus, new energy will reduce the dependence on
government. Fully understanding life and the nature of the mind will enable
rapid low-cost learning. This will remove another government service
(education—which is poorly provided at high cost). Personal flying machines may
greatly reduce the need for roads, another government service. The greatly
reduced need for oil will make yet another government service obsolete—the
fighting of wars for oil and the support of corrupt governments. Generally,
individuals will have so much technology available locally that they will have
much more ability to live with minimal outside service, almost like farmers
before the first wave but with greater luxury and abundant leisure time. The
great reduction of the power of government and religion will make the world a
much safer place and enable more rapid development and widespread use of the
new technologies to come.
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